Deep dive onshore wind energy
Turbine size
The wind turbines newly installed in Germany have become increasingly larger and more powerful over the past few years. The hub height and rotor diameter of new turbines have more than doubled since 2000 (see the figure below, 12-month moving averages). Electric output has even increased more than fivefold: At the beginning of 2000, newly installed wind turbines had an average output of less than one megawatt. Currently, the average output per turbine is over five megawatts.
This increase in the size of newly installed turbines is also reflected in the installed base (left figure). Until the end of 2016, wind turbines with a capacity of less than 2 megawatts dominated the market. Today, turbines with a capacity of 3 MW or more account for the majority of the total installed base. Large turbines with capacities exceeding 5 MW now dominate monthly new installations (right figure). To date, the turbines being decommissioned have predominantly been those with a capacity of less than 2 MW.
Distribution across German states
The total capacity shares among the German states have not changed much in the last 20 years. Lower Saxony has the most installed capacity followed at some distance by Brandenburg, Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony-Anhalt. These five states make up for two thirds of the total capacity installed in Germany. States large in area such as Bavaria or Baden-Württemberg contribute little to the total capacity. This assessment does not change if one concentrates on recent additions. On the contrary, the aforementioned top-5 states have an even larger share. The most capacity additions by far in the last 12 months have happened in the comparably small state of Schleswig-Holstein.
The differences in installed capacities across the German states does not merely depend on the differences in capacity potentials but also on the way these potentials are used. The following figure shows the currently installed capacity in each state in comparison to a scenario of the Ariadne project reflecting the necessary capacities by state for 2045 under considerations of the state-specific potentials. Apart from small city state Bremen which has already met its small potential for onshore wind energy, it is again the top-5 states that already make good use of their potential. Especially so Schleswig-Holstein, having already realized two thirds of the capacity envisaged in the Ariadne scenario. Bayern, Saxony and Baden-Württemberg are particularly far behind the capacity goals suggested in the scenario.
Tenders
The following figure provides an overview of the auctions for onshore wind power generation capacity since the start of the auctions in 2017, based on data from the Federal Network Agency. The figures show the tendered quantities, the awarded quantities, and the award values. The latter determine the market premiums received by the plants and can be interpreted as the average minimum revenue per kWh required over the term. For better comparability, we present the award values here in real prices, deflated by the consumer price index. The tendered capacity has increased over time, albeit less sharply than for PV plants. However, most of the recent auctions were signed, some of them significantly. This means that there were significantly too few bids. The (real) award values have hardly decreased in recent years. In the most recently signed auctions, they were always at the level of the maximum possible award value.
The following figure shows the annual tender and award volumes again in aggregate form.
Land use
The federal government has also set itself targets for the designation of areas for wind energy. The Act to Increase and Accelerate the Expansion of Onshore Wind Energy Systems stipulates that an average share of 1.4 percent should be achieved by the end of 2027 across all federal states, and then two percent by the end of 2032. Specific targets apply to the individual federal states. The three city states only have to designate 0.5 percent of their land area for the use of wind power by 2032; in the southern states of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg it is 1.8 percent each, and in some central German states such as Hesse, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt it is 2.2 percent. According to an earlier report by the Federal Government-Länder Cooperation Committee, only 0.70 percent of the area nationwide was legally designated for onshore wind energy at the end of 2020 (lower corridor without double counting, area designations either exclusively at the regional planning level or at the urban land-use plan level). According to the latest report, this figure has increased to 1.0 percent by 2024. However, the designation of areas for wind power is below a linear interpolated target path.