Energy consumption
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Scenario Corridor
For comparison, each graphic shows the corridor of scenarios developed by a team of researchers from the Technical University of Berlin using the GENeSYS-MOD model as part of the European openENTRANCE project.
For a given indicator, the scenario corridor displays the minimum and maximum values of projections at five-year intervals between 2025 and 2050 among four scenarios. The scenarios considered are: Directed Transition, Gradual Development, Societal Commitment and Techno-Friendly.
More information on the definition of the scenarios can be found here.
Fossil energy primary consumption
In terms of primary fossil energy consumption, the Energy Code sets a target of a 40% reduction by 2030 compared to 2012. This target is broken down into sub-targets by energy vector for the years 2023 and 2028 in the Pluriannual Energy Programme. Compared to the reference year 2012, primary oil consumption in 2023 must be 19% lower, natural gas 10% lower and coal 66% lower. For 2028, the targets are -34%, -22% and -80% respectively.
According to the 2023 edition of the Key energy figures published by the Statistical data and studies from the French Ministry of Ecological Transition, primary consumption of fossil fuels is 1247 TWh compared to 1478 TWh in 2012, a reduction of 15.6% over the period 2012-2022 (231 TWh). Weather-adjusted primary consumption excluding non-energy uses of oil, natural gas and coal decreased by 14.4%, 5.8% and 48.2% respectively between 2012 and 2022. It is therefore unlikely that the 2023 targets will be met.
Final energy consumption
The Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE), the latest version of which was adopted in April 2020, sets a target for reducing final energy consumption for several time frames, namely 2023 and 2028. More specifically, all sectors combined, final energy consumption in 2023 (resp. 2028) must not exceed 1525 TWh (resp. 1378 TWh), which represents a decrease of about 10% compared to 2012 (resp. 18%).
In addition, the Energy Transition Law for Green Growth (LTECV), adopted in August 2015, provides for a reduction of 20% in 2030 and 50% in 2050 compared to 2012 levels.
According to the 2023 edition of the Key energy figures published by the statistical data and studies from the French Ministry of Ecological Transition, final energy consumption amounted to 1588 TWh in 2022. This is higher than the target of 1543 TWh for 2022, based on a linear progression between 2015 and 2023. Although all sectors except transport have reduced their final energy consumption, the level reached in 2022 is only 25 TWh lower than in 2021. To reach the target set for 2023, the reduction in final energy consumption between 2022 and 2023 would have to be 2.5 times higher than the reduction between 2021 and 2022.