Renewable heat
Heat pumps
Heat pumps make it possible to harness environmental heat. This plays a major role in many future scenarios, particularly in the area of space heating. The current federal government did not specify a target for the expansion of heat pumps in its coalition agreement—the term “heat pump” is not used even once in the entire document. In the context of the 2nd Heat Pump Summit in November 2022, the then-Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) set a target of approximately six million heat pumps by 2030, as well as an annual increase of at least 500,000 heat pumps starting in 2024; however, this figure likely refers to the provision of space heating in individual buildings (excluding large-scale heat pumps in heating networks and high-temperature heat pumps). There is no publicly available data updated monthly on the stock of heating heat pumps in Germany. We use AGEE-Stat as well as, for the time being, figures from the BDH. Currently, the expansion of heat pumps is far behind the target path (data for the current year * incomplete).
For comparison, scenarios of the Ariadne project can also be added to the figure. The lead model for heat pumps (REMod) identifies a stock of 5.3 million heat pumps in 2030 (in individual buildings) in the Technology mix scenario, which is below the government target. By 2045, this heat pump inventory grows to about 15 million. In addition, the heat pump expansion paths of four other studies can be compared, which together with the Ariadne scenarios have been dubbed the "Big 5" scenarios, namely "Climate Neutral Germany 2045" by Agora Energiewende, "Climate Paths 2.0" (scenario Zielpfad) by BDI, "Towards climate neutrality" (Leitstudie Aufbruch Klimaneutralität, scenario KN100) by Dena, and "Long-term scenarios 3" (scenario TN-Strom) by BMWK. Up to 2045, heat pump additions are particularly high in the BMWK long-term scenarios, and lowest in the Dena lead study.
The following figure shows the share of different heating technologies in newly installed (water-based) heating systems in Germany since 2021, based on data from the BDH. The share of heat pumps has risen steadily since 2021. In the current, still incomplete (*) year, it exceeded that of gas heating systems for the first time. In absolute terms (click on the button), most new heat pumps have been installed so far in 2023. However, in the context of a heated social debate about the Building Energy Act, a record number of almost 0.8 million new gas heating systems were also installed in 2023.
District heating
At the District Heating Summit in 2023, the German government and various industry associations declared that the expansion and decarbonization of district heating (DH) are to play a key role in the heat transition: the number of connections is to triple by 2045, and by that year DH networks are to be supplied entirely with heat from renewable energy sources or waste heat. The German District Heating Planning Act (WPG) defines two interim targets: by 2030, each DH network should be supplied with a share of at least 30 percent renewable heat or waste heat, rising to at least 80 percent by 2040 (WPG §29). Exceptions apply to networks in which more than 70 percent of heat is generated in combined heat and power plants (WPG §29.5). According to the industry association AGFW, there were around 4,300 district heating networks in Germany in 2023. There are no official figures on the share of renewable heat in individual DH networks. To measure the state of decarbonization, we use voluntary disclosures from DH companies on the Preistransparenzplattform Fernwärme. The platform is operated by the industry associations AGFW, VKU, and BDEW, and is updated monthly. The availability of DH networks in a municipality is modelled using data from the Census 2022.
In 2026, data on the share of renewable heat are available for around one fifth of all district heating networks in Germany, of which about half have already met the WPG 2030 target. Networks with high shares of renewable heat are concentrated in western and southern Germany, where DH nevertheless accounts for a relatively small share of residential heating demand. In eastern and northern Germany, where DH plays a more significant role in residential heat demand, the average share of renewable energy in DH networks is lower.
Shares in the heating sector
The current coalition agreement does not contain a specific target for the share of renewable energy in the heating sector. The previous government (the "traffic light" coalition, 2021–2024) aimed for "a very high" share of renewable energy in heating. However, even their coalition agreement did not include an explicit quantitative target for renewables by 2030; instead, it stated that by 2030, 50 percent of heat must be generated in a "climate-neutral" way.
In 2025, the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption for heating and cooling (including district heating) was 19 percent, according to data from AGEE-Stat. Based on the previous government’s target and - assuming that imported climate-neutral hydrogen and carbon capture and storage capture will play only a minor role in the heating sector by 2030 - the share of renewable energy would need to increase by more than six percentage points per year. This would be significantly faster than in recent years in order to meet the previous coalition’s goal. However, development is currently well below this target path.
... in various climate neutrality studies
For a further look into the future beyond 2030, climate neutrality studies can be used to examine the feasibility of climate neutrality for Germany in 2045. The chart below shows the studies by Agora, Ariadne, BDI and McKinsey for the heating and building sector.
The Ariadne study shows the share of renewable energies in the heating sector over time, increasing from approximately 13 percent in 2020 to approximately 55 percent in 2030 and to approximately 100 percent in 2045. The scenarios from Agora, BDI, and McKinsey refer to the building sector and further differentiate by heat generator. In these scenarios, the share of heat pumps is the largest, rising to 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively, in 2030 and becoming the dominant technology at around 50 percent in 2045.
Emissions
Using emissions data for the building sector and assumptions regarding land use development, the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) per square meter can also be derived, which can serve as a useful reference point on the path to climate neutrality. The graph below shows sectoral GHG emissions in kilograms (kg) per square meter (m²) according to the climate neutrality scenarios of Agora, Ariadne, BDI, and dena. The average of the Ariadne and Agora scenarios was used for land use development. In the scenarios for private households and the trade, commerce, and services (T&C) sector, summarized as residential and non-residential buildings, the GHG intensity decreases from an average of 22 kg CO₂-eq./m² in the period 2018-20 to 13 kg CO₂-eq./m² in 2030 and to approximately 0.45 kg CO₂-eq./m² in 2045.
A historical comparison can also be made for the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of private households. The chart below shows historical greenhouse gas emissions per square meter in residential buildings since 1990, based on data from the German Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt) and the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), compared with the climate neutrality scenarios for 2045 developed by Agora and Ariadne.
GHG intensity declined to approximately 19 kg CO₂-eq./m² in 2024, placing it on track toward climate neutrality. According to the scenarios, however, emissions intensity must decrease substantially between 2030 and 2035 in order to fall below 4 kg CO₂-eq./m² by 2035.
For the emissions data covering private households under the 2045 climate neutrality pathway, data from Ariadne were used. Projections of future floor space development are based on Agora data.