Electric Mobility
Hint
All our figures are interactive: in the upper-right corner of every figure, you find buttons for zooming in and out. By clicking on a time series in a legend, you can add or hide them from the figure.
Road transport
Battery electric passenger cars
The government coalition has set a target of at least 15 million fully electric passenger cars by 2030, which we equate here with purely battery electric vehicles. At the end of November 2021, there were around 0.59 million such passenger cars in Germany, according to the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt. To achieve the target, an average of 0.13 million vehicles per month must be added by 2030. Such a linear progression is shown in the figure, but it is purely illustrative. In reality, a logistic pathway is more likely. Based on a study by Fraunhofer ISI, a logistic path can be derived that will achieve exactly 15 million electric cars in 2030 (thanks to Patrick Plötz and colleagues). According to this, the current development of the vehicle stock is only slightly below the target path.
For comparison, scenarios of the Ariadne project can also be shown in the figure. The coalition's target of 15 million fully electric passenger cars in the year 2030 lies within the corridor provided by all Ariadne scenarios. The Ariadne lead model for mobility, VECTOR21, is only slightly below the coalition's target in the Technology Mix Scenario. By 2045, the fleet grows to nearly 42 million electric vehicles in the lead model. It should be noted that the Ariadne scenarios also include some plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and not only fully electric ones as formulated in the coalition target.
In addition, the following figure shows the shares of purely battery-electric cars and plug-in hybrids in new car registrations per month. Although the coalition has not formulated a specific target for this, this indicator illustrates the dynamics of what is happening better than the stock indicator shown above.
Charging infrastructure
The traffic light coalition has set a target of one million publicly and non-discriminatorily accessible charging points by 2030, with a focus on fast charging infrastructure. As of 1 December 2021, according to Bundesnetzagentur, nearly 54,000 charging points were in operation, of which around 46,000 were normal charging points and 8000 were fast charging points. To achieve the target, an average of around 8,700 new charging points must go into operation every month until 2030. The graph shows a corresponding linear path. In addition, a logistic path is available that follows the course of the logistic stock development of the battery-electric passenger car fleet shown above.
The following figure shows the ratio of battery-electric cars and publicly accessible charging points. The government has not formulated an explicit target for this. The fleet and charging infrastructure targets for 2030 imply a ratio of 15 battery electric cars per charging point, although the breakdown between fast and normal charging points is unclear. Recently, the number of electric vehicles sharing a publicly accessible fast charging point has increased significantly.
Rail transport
Electrification of the network
The government coalition plans to electrify 75 percent of the German rail network by 2030. According to Deutsche Bahn AG, 61.7% of the federally owned rail network was electrified in 2020. To achieve the target, the share must increase by an average of almost 1.5 percentage points per year until 2030.