Electric Mobility
Road transport
Battery electric passenger cars
The government coalition has set a target of at least 15 million fully electric passenger cars by 2030, which we equate here with purely battery electric vehicles. At the end of November 2021, there were slightly below 0.6 million such passenger cars in Germany, according to the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt. To achieve the target, an average of 0.13 million vehicles per month must be added by 2030. Such a linear progression is shown in the figure, but it is purely illustrative. In reality, a logistic pathway is more likely. Based on a study by Fraunhofer ISI, a logistic path can be derived that will achieve exactly 15 million electric cars in 2030 (thanks to Patrick Plötz and colleagues). According to this, the current development of the vehicle stock is only slightly below the target path. Note: In addition to new registrations, the KBA also publishes the actual stock data (including deregistrations that have taken place in the meantime) every three months. In the two months in between, deregistrations are estimated on the basis of the most recent ratios of new registrations and deregistrations. Accordingly, the data for the last few months may be subject to slight changes.
For comparison, scenarios of the Ariadne project can also be shown in the figure. The coalition's target of 15 million fully electric passenger cars in the year 2030 lies within the corridor provided by all Ariadne scenarios. The Ariadne lead model for mobility, VECTOR21, is only slightly below the coalition's target in the Technology Mix Scenario. By 2045, the fleet grows to nearly 42 million electric vehicles in the lead model. It should be noted that the Ariadne scenarios also include some plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and not only fully electric ones as formulated in the coalition target.
In addition, the following figure shows the shares of purely battery-electric cars and plug-in hybrids in new car registrations per month. Although the coalition has not formulated a specific target for this, this indicator illustrates the dynamics of what is happening better than the stock indicator shown above. At the turn of the year there were several breaks due to changing regulation and funding measures. This was particularly pronounced at the end of 2022 due to cuts in the Umweltbonus.
Total passenger car fleet
In contrast to the expansion of the fully electric passenger car fleet, the governing coalition has not set a target for reducing the stock of cars with internal combustion engines. The following figure shows the development of the total passenger car fleet in Germany by drive or fuel type. The data is provided by the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt, from 2013 to the end of 2017 as annual data and from mid-2018 as quarterly data. Overall, the fleet continues to grow to just under 49 million passenger cars at last count. Since the beginning of 2020, the number of passenger cars with gasoline or diesel engines has been declining slightly; however, they still account for over 90 percent of the passenger car fleet. Fuel cell passenger cars play virtually no role in the overall fleet, with only around 2,000 vehicles (0.004 percent).
Commercial vehicles
In the case of commercial vehicles, the statistics distinguish between trucks, tractor units and buses. These differ in terms of their intended use and bodywork. Trucks are commercial vehicles, usually with a fixed body, which are intended for the transportation of goods. In addition, there are so-called towing vehicles, which are primarily designed to carry towed vehicles. This category also includes semi-trailer tractors, which are often colloquially referred to as “lorries” or “trucks”. In addition to tractor units, the tractor category also includes agricultural and forestry towing vehicles, which are not considered in more detail below. Buses and coaches are vehicles that are designed and constructed to carry more than nine people (including the driver).
The Klimaschutzprogramm 2030 from the German government envisages that by 2030, around a third of the mileage covered by heavy goods vehicles will be electric or based on electricity-based fuels. However, there are no concrete targets for new registrations or existing electric lorries. For city buses, however, the climate protection programme sets a target of 50 percent electric drives in the fleet by 2030. However, this does not include coaches and intercity buses. At European level, new fleet limits for CO2 emissions from heavy commercial vehicles were recently adopted, which will probably only be achievable with a rapid electrification of vehicle fleets. Accordingly, newly registered lorries and tractor units over 7.5 tonnes as well as intercity buses should have 45 percent lower emissions in 2030 compared to 2019. In 2035 and 2040, this figure will rise to 65 and 90 per cent respectively. There are only exceptions for small series manufacturers, for mining, agriculture or forestry, as well as vehicles for the military, civil defence, public safety and medical care. Even stricter requirements apply to city buses, with the aim of completely emission-free newly registered buses as early as 2035 and an interim target of 90 per cent by 2030. 92% of commercial vehicles sold (as of 2023) are covered by the new rules.
Current developments in alternative drive systems for various types of commercial vehicles are presented below. The data on monthly new registrations and quarterly vehicle stock are provided by the Federal Motor Transport Authority.
Trucks
At the beginning of the legislative period in October 2021, the share of electrically powered trucks in the total number of trucks registered in Germany was 1.1 per cent. Natural gas vehicles had an equally high share. Two years later, the number of battery-electric vehicles was already twice as high as the number of gas-powered trucks. The proportion of trucks with hydrogen fuel cells has also grown recently, albeit at a very low level.
This is also reflected in the number of new registrations. The battery-electric vehicle segment is the most dynamic, with a share of over 17 per cent, which has risen sharply in some cases, while natural gas drives only have a consistently low share of mostly one per cent of new registrations. Hybrid and hydrogen drives account for less than one per cent of new registrations to date.
Semitrailers
Natural gas remains the most relevant alternative drive in the semitrailer sector, accounting for around one per cent of the fleet. A few battery-electric semitrailers have recently been added, but their share of the fleet is still significantly lower than one per cent.
In terms of new registrations, there has been a continuous decline in gas-powered drives and a simultaneous ramp-up of battery-powered electric vehicles since mid-2022. Here, too, other drive types have hardly played a role to date.
Busses
In the case of busses, diesel is already on the decline. The most relevant alternative drive types here are purely battery-electric and hybrid buses without plugs. In contrast to HGVs, the proportion of gas-powered vehicles has actually fallen since October 2021. Within the first two years of the coalition, the number of hybrid drives without plugs and the number of battery electric vehicles has roughly doubled. The promotion of alternative drive systems (battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell, biomethane), which began in September 2021, provided additional financial support for the market ramp-up.
In terms of new registrations, hybrid and battery-electric drives are also the dominant category within alternative drives. Here, too, an increase in the share of new monthly registrations can be observed. In October 2021, the shares of purely battery-electric buses and hybrid buses were each around 13 per cent. Together, they already accounted for almost 50 per cent of newly registered vehicles in some months of 2023.
Charging infrastructure
Number of charging points
The traffic light coalition has set a target of one million publicly and non-discriminatorily accessible charging points by 2030, with a focus on fast charging infrastructure. As of 1 December 2021, according to Bundesnetzagentur, nearly 54,000 charging points were in operation, of which around 46,000 were normal charging points and 8000 were fast charging points. To achieve the target, an average of around 8,700 new charging points must go into operation every month until 2030. The graph shows a corresponding linear path. In addition, a logistic path is available that follows the course of the logistic stock development of the battery-electric passenger car fleet shown above.
Charging capacity
In addition, the following figure shows the development of the charging capacity available at public charging points. The government has not yet formulated any explicit targets for this. The total installed charging capacity has recently risen sharply, primarily due to the growth in fast charging points. The average charging capacity per charging point also grew, but at a much slower rate.
The following figure shows the ratio of battery electric cars and publicly accessible charging points. The government has not formulated an explicit target for this. The fleet and charging infrastructure targets for 2030 imply a ratio of 15 battery electric cars per charging point, although the breakdown between fast and normal charging points is unclear. In particular, the number of electric vehicles that mathematically share a publicly accessible fast charging point has increased significantly since 2020. The figure additionally shows the average installed charging capacity per electric car. It has decreased significantly since 2020.
Rail transport
Electrification of the network
The government coalition plans to electrify 75 percent of the German rail network by 2030. According to Deutsche Bahn AG, 61.7% of the federally owned rail network was electrified in 2020. To achieve the target, the share must increase by an average of almost 1.5 percentage points per year until 2030. Currently, the electrification speed is significantly lower.