The coalition agreement mentions an electrolysis capacity of around 10 gigawatts in 2030 as a target. According to the IEA Hydrogen Projects Database, electrolysers with an electrical capacity of around 60 megawatts were in operation in Germany at the beginning of October 2021. To achieve the target, an average of around 90 megawatts per month must be added by the end of 2030. By now, however, installed capacity has barely increased. But it should be noted that projects with several times this capacity are currently being planned and some are already under construction. As in the case of battery-electric vehicles, the linear progression shown here is purely illustrative; in reality, we rather expect the capacity expansion to follow a logistic curve.
For comparison, scenarios of the Ariadne project can also be added to the figure. The coalition's electrolysis target for 2030 is at the upper end of the corridor provided by all Ariadne scenarios. The Ariadne lead model for electrolysis capacity expansion, REMIND, is substantially below the coalition's target in the Technology Mix Scenario in 2030. After 2035, the Ariadne scenario corridor becomes very wide, with the lead model always at the lower end of the corridor. These model results reflect a relatively high uncertainty about the longer-term prospects of domestic green hydrogen production in Germany.
Although the electrolysis capacity already in operation is still very small, there are a large number of projects that are to be developed over the next few years. These are shown in the following figure. According to the IEA Hydrogen Projects Database, further electrolysers with an electrical output of just under 500 megawatts are currently under construction or in the final investment decision (FID) phase. In addition, there are a further 8.3 gigawatts for which feasibility studies are underway. In addition, there are (less concrete) concepts for further projects with a total capacity of 13.2 gigawatts. A specific year of planned commissioning is not specified for all projects (see column on the right). In order to achieve the target of 10 gigawatts in 2030, not only would all projects with a concrete start date that are currently at least at the feasibility study level actually have to be realized, but also a good portion of the less mature conceptual projects.