Renewable heat
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Scenario Corridor
For comparison, each graphic shows the corridor of scenarios developed by a team of researchers from the Technical University of Berlin using the GENeSYS-MOD model as part of the European openENTRANCE project.
For a given indicator, the scenario corridor displays the minimum and maximum values of projections at five-year intervals between 2025 and 2050 among four scenarios. The scenarios considered are: Directed Transition, Gradual Development, Societal Commitment and Techno-Friendly.
More information on the definition of the scenarios can be found here.
Share of RES in heat gross final consumption
With regard to final heat consumption, the Energy Transition Law for Green Growth (LTECV) set a target of 38% of renewable origin for 2030 in 2015.
If all the measures it provides for are effectively put in place, the Pluriannual Energy Programme (PPE) estimates that 196 TWh of heating needs should be provided by renewable energies in 2023, i.e. 28% of final heat consumption. In 2028, this share should continue to increase to cover between 219 and 247 TWh of heat, i.e. a share of the final heat consumption amounting to between 34.3% and 38.9%.
Based on data and statistical studies from the Ministry of Energy Transition, renewable energy sources accounted for 27.2% of heat in 2022, which is an increase of almost 3 percentage points from 2021. In order to achieve the 2030 target on a linear trajectory, the share would need to be 27.8% in 2022 and 29.1% in 2023. France is currently approximately 0.6 percentage points behind the level predicted by the linear trajectory, despite having significantly reduced the backlog accumulated in previous years. To achieve the 2030 target, it is necessary to maintain the average rate of increase seen over the last five years.
In France, the primary sources of renewable heat and cooling are solid biomass and urban waste, which account for 62% of the renewable supply (including 40% of wood consumption by households), and heat pumps, which account for approximately 27%. Heat pumps are increasingly contributing to the supply of renewable heat sources in France, with a growth rate of around 13% between 2021 and 2022. Biogas (+22%) is also among the other technologies that have developed particularly strongly between 2021 and 2022.
Heat pumps
Stock of operating heat pumps
In contrast to the 'traffic light' coalition in Germany, France does not have a quantified target for the stock of heat pumps to be in place by 2030. However, the indicator is still informative. According to the online database of EurObserv'ER, there were approximately 8.8 million heat pumps in France in 2021. This stock is primarily composed of aerothermal heat pumps, which derive their heat source from calories in the ambient air outside. In 2021, just under 200,000 units were accounted for by ground-source heat pumps, which extract heat from the ground.
Annual heat pump sales and renewable heat production
The 2023 edition of the key figures for renewable energies, produced by the French Ministry of Energy Transition, reports that annual sales of all heat pump technologies exceeded one million in 2021 and 2022. Although sales of air-to-air heat pumps seem to be stagnating or even declining since 2022, sales of air-to-water heat pumps are increasing, reaching 346,000 units in 2022. Meanwhile, annual sales of ground-source heat pumps appear to have remained at the same level since 2016.
The increase in total heat production by heat pumps, which is one of the targets set out in the Multiannual Energy Programme, can be attributed to the trend in heat pump sales. The PPE2 sets production at 39.6 TWh for 2023 and between 44 and 52 TWh for 2028. In 2022, heat pump production amounted to 42.7 TWh, slightly lower than in 2021 due to more favourable weather conditions. On a consistent climate basis, heat pump production would have reached 48 TWh, exceeding the target for 2023 and also surpassing the lower target for 2028.