Energy consumption
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Scenario Corridor
For comparison, each graphic shows the corridor of scenarios developed by a team of researchers from the Technical University of Berlin using the GENeSYS-MOD model as part of the European openENTRANCE project.
For a given indicator, the scenario corridor displays the minimum and maximum values of projections at five-year intervals between 2025 and 2050 among four scenarios. The scenarios considered are: Directed Transition, Gradual Development, Societal Commitment and Techno-Friendly.
More information on the definition of the scenarios can be found here.
Fossil energy primary consumption
With regard to primary fossil energy consumption, the Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE), sets a reduction target of 1149 TWh for 2023 and 942 TWh for 2028. This target is broken down into sub-targets by energy vector. For 2023, the primary consumption of coal should not exceed 48 TWh. The target for oil is 700 TWh and for gas 401 TWh. In 2028, the consumption of these energy carriers must not exceed 28 TWh, 569 TWh and 345 TWh respectively. The PPE also provides for specific targets for each sector. For 2023 (resp. 2028), the final energy consumption of the building sector (residential and tertiary) must not exceed 712 TWh (resp. 636 TWh). For the transport, industry and agriculture-fisheries sectors, the final energy consumption must not exceed 473 TWh (resp. 427 TWh), 291 TWh (resp. 269) and 49 TWh (resp. 46 TWh) respectively.
In addition, the Energy-Climate Law, adopted in November 2019, provides for a 40% reduction in 2030 compared to the 2012 level.
According to the 2022 edition of the Key energy figures published by the statistical data and studies from the French Ministry of Ecological Transition, fossil primary energy consumption in 2021 was 1281 TWh, of which 83.4 TWh was coal, 767.2 TWh oil and 430.4 TWh gas. The total consumption for the year 2021 is therefore 19 TWh higher than the level that would be achieved by a linear reduction of fossil primary energy consumption up to the target year 2023. In order to reach the target of 1149 TWh in 2023, fossil primary energy consumption would have to be reduced by 132 TWh. This is 1.5 times more than the reduction that took place between 2019 and 2021.
Final energy consumption
The Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE), the latest version of which was adopted in April 2020, sets a target for reducing final energy consumption for several time frames, namely 2023 and 2028. More specifically, all sectors combined, final energy consumption in 2023 (resp. 2028) must not exceed 1525 TWh (resp. 1378 TWh), which represents a decrease of 7.6% compared to 2012 (resp. 16.5%).
In addition, the Energy Transition Law for Green Growth (LTECV), adopted in August 2015, provides for a reduction of 20% in 2030 and 50% in 2050 compared to 2012 levels.
According to the 2022 edition of the Key energy figures published by the statistical data and studies from the French Ministry of Ecological Transition, final energy consumption amounted to 1617.8 TWh in 2021. This is above the target of 1564 TWh for that year ensuring. Although all sectors except agriculture have reduced their final energy consumption, the level reached in 2021 is only 36.7 TWh lower than in 2019. To reach the 2023 target, final energy consumption would have to be reduced three times more than it was between 2019 and 2021.