Renewable energy expansion
Hint
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Scenario Corridor
For comparison, each graphic shows the corridor of scenarios developed by a team of researchers from the Technical University of Berlin using the GENeSYS-MOD model as part of the European openENTRANCE project.
For a given indicator, the scenario corridor displays the minimum and maximum values of projections at five-year intervals between 2025 and 2050 among four scenarios. The scenarios considered are: Directed Transition, Gradual Development, Societal Commitment and Techno-Friendly.
More information on the definition of the scenarios can be found here.
Solar PV
The Pluriannual Energy Programme (in French, PPE), the latest revision of which was adopted in April 2020, sets a target of 20.1 GW of installed PV capacity in 2023 and a low (resp. high) target for 2030 of 35.1 GW (resp. 44 GW). The PPE also provides a breakdown of the installed PV capacity between ground-mounted and roof-mounted panels. By 2023, ground-mounted panels are expected to reach an installed capacity of 11.6 GW (resp. 8.5 GW for rooftop panels). In 2028, ground-mounted (resp. roof-mounted) panels would represent between 20.6 and 25 GW (resp. between 14.5 and 19 GW) or an estimated area of between 330 and 400 km2 (resp. between 150 and 200 km2).
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, the installed photovoltaic capacity in France at the end of the first quarter of 2023 amounts to 16.44 GW, i.e. about 1.56 gigawatt less than what would be expected from a linear deployment of new installations from April 2020 up to the 2023 target. Furthermore, although the trend over the last year shows a clear acceleration of new photovoltaic installations compared to the trend over the last five years, it would seem that this acceleration is not yet sufficient to catch up and reach the targets set for 2023 and 2028. An even stronger acceleration will have to be implemented in order to achieve this.
In his Belfort speech on 10 February 2022, the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced that he wanted to achieve installed photovoltaic capacity of 100 GW by 2050. Reaching such a target would mean connecting an additional 740 MW every quarter, i.e. maintaining the same pace as that needed to reach the low targets of the PPE between 2023 and 2028, under the additional assumption that the low target of the EPP in 2028 will be reached on time. It should be noted, however, that this target has no legal force for the time being.
Wind energy
Onshore
In the latest revision of the Pluriannual Energy Programme (PPE), adopted in April 2020, the target for installed onshore wind power capacity is 24.1 GW in 2023 and between 33.2 GW and 34.7 GW in 2028.
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, in the first quarter of 2023, installed onshore wind power capacity in France stood at 20.94 GW, compared with the 22.64 GW predicted by a linear progression of onshore wind deployment between April 2020 and December 2023, i.e. a delay of 1.7 GW. If the trend over the last four quarters is anything to go by, compared with the trend over the last five years (2017-2021), onshore wind deployment in France has recently picked up speed. However, further acceleration is still needed to meet year-end targets.
Offshore
As far as offshore wind is concerned, France is falling further and further behind the targets set in the latest version of the Multiannual Energy Programme (MPE) adopted in April 2020. Indeed, according to the PPE, 2.4 GW of offshore wind should be installed by the end of 2023 and between 5.2 GW and 6.2 GW by the end of 2028.
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, there was 0.98 GW of installed offshore wind power at the end of the first quarter of 2023. The first French offshore wind farm off the coast of Saint-Nazaire was inaugurated in September 2022. This first park consists of 80 wind turbines. In January 2023, the offshore wind farm near Saint-Nazaire produced more than 180,000 MWh. In May 2023, a second offshore wind farm began its installation phase in the sea of Brittany, in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc. This park will consist of 62 wind turbines with a total capacity of 496 MW.
While the installation of these first two offshore wind farms is encouraging and seems to be going in the right direction, France is still lagging badly behind in this area, even compared to the targets set in the EPP. Despite the 986 MW recently installed, the gap in installed capacity is still significant (around 1 GW), compared to a linear increase in capacity build-up between April 2020 and December 2023.
In his Belfort speech, dated February 10, 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that he wanted to achieve 40 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2050. Reaching such a target would mean connecting an additional 400 MW every quarter, slightly less than the 480 MW of the Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm, under the additional assumption that the low target of the PPE in 2028 will be reached on time. However, this target is currently not legally binding.
RES share
In final gross energy consumption
The Energy Code (CE) sets the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption at 23% in 2020. In addition, the Energy and Climate Law (LEC) sets this share at at least 33% in 2030.
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, in 2021 renewable energies accounted for 19.3% of gross final energy consumption in France, an increase of 0.2 percentage points in 2021 compared to 2020. This means that France has not reached the 2020 target by almost 4 percentage points. To be in line with the linear increase compatible with the objective of the Energy and Climate Law in 2030, this share should represent 20.1% in 2021 and 21.5% in 2022. The gap in the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption is therefore widening, being 0.8 percentage points lower in 2021 than the level forecast by a linear increase between 2020 and 2030. It should also be noted that the progress over the last five years seems to have been slower than the linear progress towards the 2030 target. To reach the 2030 target, the ratio of renewable capacity to gross final energy consumption needs to be increased more rapidly.
In the version adopted in April 2020 of the Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE), gross final energy consumption is estimated at 1637 TWh in 2023 and 1489 TWh in 2028. If the measures foreseen in the PPE are effectively implemented, the share of renewable energies in the gross final energy consumption should be 389 TWh in 2023 (about 24%) and between 477 and 529 TWh in 2028 (about 32 to 35%), which would mean that France would probably reach the target set for 2030. The progress over the last five years is not fast enough to close the gap and reach the 2030 target.
In final heat consumption
With regard to final heat consumption, the Energy Transition Law for Green Growth (LTECV) set a target of 38% of renewable origin for 2030 in 2015.
If all the measures it provides for are effectively put in place, the Pluriannual Energy Programme (PPE) estimates that 196 TWh of heating needs should be provided by renewable energies in 2023, i.e. 28% of final heat consumption. In 2028, this share should continue to increase to cover between 219 and 247 TWh of heat, i.e. a share of the final heat consumption amounting to between 34.3% and 38.9%.
According to the statistical data and studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, 24.4% of heat came from renewable energy sources in 2021. This represents an increase of 1 percentage point compared to 2020. To stay on course towards the 2038 target on a linear trajectory, this share should be 26.5% in 2021 and 27.8% in 2022. France is therefore about 2.1 percentage points behind the level predicted by the linear trajectory, which is about the same as in 2020.