Renewable energy expansion
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The Pluriannual Energy Programme (in French, PPE), the latest revision of which was adopted in April 2020, sets a target of 20.1 GW of installed PV capacity in 2023 and a low (resp. high) target for 2030 of 35.1 GW (resp. 44 GW). The PPE also provides a breakdown of the installed PV capacity between ground-mounted and roof-mounted panels. By 2023, ground-mounted panels are expected to reach an installed capacity of 11.6 GW (resp. 8.5 GW for rooftop panels). In 2028, ground-mounted (resp. roof-mounted) panels would represent between 20.6 and 25 GW (resp. between 14.5 and 19 GW) or an estimated area of between 330 and 400 km2 (resp. between 150 and 200 km2).
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, the installed photovoltaic capacity in France at the end of the second quarter of 2022 amounts to 14.53 GW, i.e. about 1.42 gigawatt less than what would be expected from a linear deployment of new installations from April 2020 up to the 2023 target. Furthermore, although the trend over the last year shows a clear acceleration of new photovoltaic installations compared to the trend over the last five years, it would seem that this acceleration is not yet sufficient to catch up and reach the targets set for 2023 and 2028. An even stronger acceleration will have to be implemented in order to achieve this.
In the latest revision of the Pluriannual Energy Programme (PPE), adopted in April 2020, the target for installed onshore wind power capacity is 24.1 GW in 2023 and between 33.2 GW and 34.7 GW in 2028.
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, in the second quarter of 2022, the installed capacity of onshore wind power in France was 19.46 GW against the 21.19 GW forecast by a linear progression of onshore wind deployment between April 2020 and December 2023, i.e. a delay of 1.72 GW. Comparing the trend over the last four quarters with the trend over the last five years (2017-2021), onshore wind deployment in France has slowed down significantly recently. If this slowdown were to continue, the delay would only increase and the medium-term objectives would become increasingly difficult to achieve.
As far as offshore wind is concerned, France is falling further and further behind the targets set in the latest version of the Multiannual Energy Programme (MPE) adopted in April 2020. Indeed, according to the PPE, 2.4 GW of offshore wind should be installed by the end of 2023 and between 5.2 GW and 6.2 GW by the end of 2028.
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, at the end of the second quarter of 2022 there was 0.48 GW of installed offshore wind power. The difference with the previous quarter (end of March 2022) is explained by the installation of the first French offshore wind farm off Saint-Nazaire. This first wind farm consists of 80 turbines and should be connected to the electricity grid before the end of 2022. Although the installation of this first offshore wind farm is encouraging and seems to be going in the right direction, France is still lagging far behind in this area, even compared to the objectives set by the PPE. Despite the 480 MW recently installed, the deficit of installed capacity remains at around 1 GW compared to a linear progression of capacity deployment between April 2020 and December 2023. This corresponds to a reduction in the backlog of about 300 MW compared to the previous quarter.
In final gross energy consumption
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, in 2021 renewable energies accounted for 19.3% of gross final energy consumption in France, an increase of 0.2 percentage points in 2021 compared to 2020. This means that France has not reached the 2020 target by almost 4 percentage points. To be in line with the linear increase compatible with the objective of the Energy and Climate Law in 2030, this share should represent 20.1% in 2021 and 21.5% in 2022. The gap in the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption is therefore widening, being 0.8 percentage points lower in 2021 than the level forecast by a linear increase between 2020 and 2030. It should also be noted that the progress over the last five years seems to have been slower than the linear progress towards the 2030 target. To reach the 2030 target, the ratio of renewable capacity to gross final energy consumption needs to be increased more rapidly.
In the version adopted in April 2020 of the Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE), gross final energy consumption is estimated at 1637 TWh in 2023 and 1489 TWh in 2028. If the measures foreseen in the PPE are effectively implemented, the share of renewable energies in the gross final energy consumption should be 389 TWh in 2023 (about 24%) and between 477 and 529 TWh in 2028 (about 32 to 35%), which would mean that France would probably reach the target set for 2030. The progress over the last five years is not fast enough to close the gap and reach the 2030 target.
In final heat consumption
With regard to final heat consumption, the Energy Transition Law for Green Growth (LTECV) set a target of 38% of renewable origin for 2030 in 2015.
If all the measures it provides for are effectively put in place, the Pluriannual Energy Programme (PPE) estimates that 196 TWh of heating needs should be provided by renewable energies in 2023, i.e. 28% of final heat consumption. In 2028, this share should continue to increase to cover between 219 and 247 TWh of heat, i.e. a share of the final heat consumption amounting to between 34.3% and 38.9%.
According to the statistical data and studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, 24.4% of heat came from renewable energy sources in 2021. This represents an increase of 1 percentage point compared to 2020. To stay on course towards the 2038 target on a linear trajectory, this share should be 26.5% in 2021 and 27.8% in 2022. France is therefore about 2.1 percentage points behind the level predicted by the linear trajectory, which is about the same as in 2020.