Renewable energy expansion
Hint
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Scenario Corridor
To put the government's targets into perspective, we add to some of the graphs the corridor of the Futurs énergétiques 2050 scenarios developed by the French Transmission System Operator (Réseau de Transport d'Électricité in French, shortened RTE).
The corridor shown here corresponds to the minimum and maximum values among the six scenarios based on the reference path for consumption. These six scenarios envisage different generation mixes, ranging from 100% renewable to 50% nuclear/50% renewable.
RTE's modelling provides values for certain variables (e.g. installed photovoltaic capacity) for 2030, 2040 and 2050. We assume a linear trajectory between these horizons to form the corridor.
For comparison, each graphic shows the corridor of scenarios developed by a team of researchers from the Technical University of Berlin using the GENeSYS-MOD model as part of the European openENTRANCE project.
For a given indicator, the scenario corridor displays the minimum and maximum values of projections at five-year intervals between 2025 and 2050 among four scenarios. The scenarios considered are: Directed Transition, Gradual Development, Societal Commitment and Techno-Friendly.
More information on the definition of the scenarios can be found here.
Solar PV
The Pluriannual Energy Programme (in French, Programmation Pluriannuelle de l'Énergie, short PPE), the latest revision of which was adopted in February 2026 (PPE3), sets a target of 48 GW of installed PV capacity in 2030 and a low (resp. high) target for 2035 of 55 GW (resp. 80 GW). The 2035 targets lie within the corridor of the Futurs énergétiques 2050 scenarios. Previous versions of the PPE (PPE1 in 2016 and PPE2 in 2020) set targets for 2023 and 2028, which are shown in the graph below for reference purposes. In his Belfort speech on 10 February 2022, the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced that he wanted to achieve installed photovoltaic capacity of 100 GW by 2050. It should be noted, however, that this target has no legal force.
According to the data and statistical studies of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, installed photovoltaic capacity in continental France at the end of the first quarter of 2026 stood at 32.1 GW. Since late 2023, at least 1 GW of additional capacity has been installed each quarter. A slowdown is evident in the first quarter of 2026, with only 670 MW installed. However, the trend over the past year shows a clear acceleration in new photovoltaic installations compared to the trend over the last five years. If this momentum is maintained, it will be possible to meet and even exceed the 2030 and 2035 targets.
Wind energy
Onshore
The most recent (third) revision of the Pluriannual Energy Programme (PPE), adopted in February 2026, sets the target for installed onshore wind energy capacity at 31 GW by 2030 and 35 to 40 GW by 2035. These targets are lower than those in previous versions of the PPE. PPE 2, adopted in 2020, notably set a minimum target of 33.2 GW for 2028. Furthermore, the new lower target of 35 GW by 2035 is below the range of scenarios developed by the French Electricity Transmission Network (RTE) in Futurs énergétiques 2050.
According to the Data and Statistical Studies Department (SDES), in the first quarter of 2026, France's installed onshore wind power capacity was 24 GW. A comparison of the trend over the last four quarters with the trend over the last five years (2021–2026) shows that the deployment of onshore wind power in France has recently slowed. If the pace of the last twelve months continues, the 2030 target will be missed, though the lower target for 2035 will be met.
Offshore
With regard to offshore wind power, the third revision of the Pluriannual Energy Programme (PPE), adopted in February 2026, sets a target of 3.6 GW for 2030. This target is significantly less ambitious than that set by the previous PPE, which projected between 5.2 GW and 6.2 GW of installed capacity by 2028. It also falls outside the range of scenarios in Energy Futures 2050. For 2035, the current PPE sets a target of 15 GW, which implies a very sharp acceleration in the deployment of offshore wind between 2030 and 2035.
According to the Data and Statistical Studies Department (SDES), there were 2.26 GW of installed offshore wind capacity at the end of the first quarter of 2026. The first French offshore wind farm, located off the coast of Saint-Nazaire, was inaugurated in September 2022. In May 2023, a second offshore wind farm began its installation phase off the coast of Brittany, in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc. A third wind farm, the Fécamp wind farm, also began operations in 2023.
In his speech in Belfort on February 10, 2022, the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced his intention to reach an installed offshore wind capacity of 40 GW by 2050. Achieving such a goal would require connecting an additional 420 MW every quarter, which is slightly less than the Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm (480 MW), assuming that the PPE’s 2035 target is met on time. It should be noted, however, that this goal does not currently have legal standing.
Hydropower
Hydropower is the primary source of renewable electricity in France and the second most significant electricity generation technology after nuclear. According to RTE data, the installed capacity was approximately 25.7 GW in 2023, excluding tidal power. According to statistics from the French Ministry of Energy Transition, lakes are currently the most widely used hydropower technology, followed by 'run-of-river' technologies. The target of 25.7 GW (including tidal power) set for 2023 has been achieved. Although the potential for expanding hydropower in France seems limited, the EPP2 predicts a slight increase in installed capacity by 2028 to between 26.4 and 26.7 GW (including tidal power). These targets are in line with the projections in RTE's Futurs 2050 scenarios. All scenarios predict an installed hydropower capacity of 26.5 GW by 2030, with an increase to 28.2 GW by 2040 and 30.1 GW by 2050.
RES share
In final gross energy consumption
The Energy Code (CE) sets the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption at 23% in 2020. In addition, the Energy and Climate Law (LEC) sets this share at at least 33% in 2030.
According to data and statistical studies from the French Ministry for Ecological Transition, France missed its 2020 target by almost 4 percentage points. In 2023, renewable energy accounted for 22.2% of gross final energy consumption in France, an increase of 1.7 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2022. However, the PPE's target of 24% by the end of 2023 has not yet been reached. The gap in the share of renewables in gross final energy consumption therefore remains and is 0.8 percentage points lower in 2023 than the level predicted by a linear increase between 2020 and 2030, slightly less than the gap observed in 2022. This means that there is some acceleration in 2023, but not enough to make up for the delays accumulated in the past. It should also be noted that progress over the last five years appears to have been slower than the linear progression required to reach the 2030 target.
In the version adopted in April 2020 of the Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE), gross final energy consumption is estimated at 1637 TWh in 2023 and 1489 TWh in 2028. If the measures foreseen in the PPE are effectively implemented, the share of renewable energies in the gross final energy consumption should be 389 TWh in 2023 (about 24%) and between 477 and 529 TWh in 2028 (about 32 to 35%), which would mean that France would probably reach the target set for 2030. The progress over the last five years is not fast enough to close the gap and reach the 2030 target.
in power generation
The 2019 Energy-Climate Act (LEC) maintains the target introduced in the Energy Transition for Green Growth Act (LTECV) for the share of renewable energies in electricity generation. By 2030, 40% of France's electricity generation will have to come from renewable sources. As of the end of 2023, the share of renewable energy stood at approximately 30%, according to data published by the French Ministry for Energy Transition. Hydroelectric power is currently the primary source of renewable electricity, accounting for over 42% of France's renewable electricity in 2023. Approximately 33% of the renewable production is provided by onshore wind power and solar photovoltaics account for about 16%.
As the prospects for deploying hydroelectric capacity are limited, most of the future increase in the share of renewables in electricity generation will have to come from other sources. That said, for the time being, it would appear that the trend in this indicator is in line with the targets set by current legislation.