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Ariadne scenarios

Ariadne-Pathfinder and Ariadne Scenario Explorer

Renewable energy

Capacity expansion

Solar PV: AGEE-Stat

Onshore wind: AGEE-Stat

Offshore wind: AGEE-Stat


Onshore wind: Report of the Bund/Länder Cooperation Committee

Shares in the electricity sector

Share of gross electricity consumption: BMWi

Share of net electricity generation: energy-charts

Heat pumps

Historical development of the stock: EurObserv'ER for 2011-2020, BWP for 2021

Governmental target: Germany's current climate action status

Stock in future scenarios:

  • "Towards a climate-neutral Germany by 2045" Agora Energiewende
  • "Climate Paths 2.0" BDI
  • "Pilot study: Towards Climate Neutrality" Dena
  • "Langfristszenarien 3" BMWK

Shares in the heating sector

Share of renewable energy in final energy consumption for heating and cooling: AGEE-Stat

Electric mobility

Road transport

Battery electric passenger cars: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt

Charging infrastructure: Bundesnetzagentur, spreadsheet "Ladeinfrastruktur in Zahlen"; linear interpolation between historic quarterly data.

Rail transport

Electrification of the network: Deutsche Bahn AG


Electrolysis capacity: IEA Hydrogen Projects Database

Energy consumption

Primary energy consumption


Security of supply

Monthly data on gross flows of natural gas at individual border points: IEA

Greenhouse gas emissions

Sectoral greenhouse gas emissions: German Federal Environmental Agency (UBA)

CO2 emissions from electricity generation: Federal Environment Agency (UBA)